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Early vote on recall possible in 90 days Absent court intervention or delays by the secretary of state, the balloting will be held on a Tuesday in late September or October if current trends continue, according to Times interviews with election officials and analysis of their data. That's bad news for Davis and his supporters, who are trying to delay the election to coincide with the March 2004 primary, when Democrats might flock to the polls for the party's presidential primary. In lieu of that, Davis might have benefited from a Nov. 4 election because some urban areas, including San Francisco and Los Angeles County, are planning local elections that day that might draw more liberal voters. But that probably won't happen. Instead, Davis' fate will probably be placed before voters in an earlier special statewide ballot. "That doesn't bode well for the governor," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California. "On the other hand, we don't know what steps will be taken by constituencies like labor. As much as they don't like Davis, they might be frightened by the prospect of a conservative Republican governor." The Secretary of State's Office has estimated a special election will cost taxpayers $35 million to $45 million. The ballot also would include the Racial Privacy Initiative, spearheaded by University of California Regent Ward Connerly, and a state infrastructure fund plan. Without a presidential primary or local elections to draw voters, Democratic leaders will have to spend more money, said Bruce Cain, a UC Berkeley political scientist. "They're going to have to really work hard to get a turnout that is going to match the Republicans." Recall backers this week turned in the last signatures to county election offices. The Times interviewed officials in 18 counties thought to have received the most signatures. Thirteen counties in that group have started checking signatures and plan to complete their randomized signature checks by July 31. Election officials could have taken until Aug. 22. But, with Davis and his allies trying to obtain a court order to stop the counting, the registrars are rushing to complete the job. "That was our plan all along," said Bruce Bradley, Ventura County assistant voter registrar. "I don't want the courts to come along and say: 'OK, stop counting.' Then you're in limbo." Recall backers needed 897,158 valid signatures. But to qualify quickly, without individual checks of each name, random tests must show 986,874 valid. That's 110 percent of the base amount. If current sampling rates hold, those 13 counties alone will report an estimated 1.1 million valid signatures by July 31. The 13 counties account for about 79 percent of the signatures recall backers say they have turned in statewide. Secretary of State Kevin Shelley will certify the recall as quickly as possible when county reports show the 110 percent threshold is met, said spokeswoman Terri Carbaugh. "Once he is confident, he will do it immediately." The certification will require Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to call a special election on a Tuesday within 60 to 80 days. Counting from Aug. 1, that would place the election between Sept. 29 and Oct. 19. Recall backers welcomed the prospect of an election before November. "We think that's tremendously good news," said Chris Wysocki, spokesman for Rescue California Recall Gray Davis, the best-funded of three groups driving the recall. "California cannot wait any longer than necessary to remove Gray Davis from office. ... We'd love to see an election in October." Recall opponents said such an early election would be a disadvantage but by no means sink Davis.
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